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We have a society in which consumerism is the single
most important economic force, and most of it is based on
debt. Credit card purchases have passed the one trillion
dollar mark annually and while personal bankruptcies
have declined the past two years they are still four times
the number eleven years ago.
Marketing of home mortgages has evolved from 80% loan to
value ratio to offers of 125% of the home's value. Home
mortgage refinancing is touted as a solution to high
interest credit card debt, which then allows the consumer to
charge up the cards again. All this comes ten
years after a decade of bank and S&L failures,
including in my own New Hampshire, which nationally ran
up a charge to taxpayers of an estimated $700 billion.
This is not sanity.
I've been an appraiser since
the run-up in property values in the 1980's, worked
through the crash in the Northeast that began in 1988 and
the recession that lasted until 1993, and am seeing a
recovery that I sometimes describe as being a mile wide but
only an inch deep. Incomes are up from several years ago
and unemployment has been hovering around 2% or 3% but the
job market is becoming more retail and service based with
lower wages and fewer benefits. It is not uncommon for a
two-parent household to depend on the income from three jobs.
In short, any downturn in the economy or rise in interest rates
affecting all those Adjustable Rate Mortgages will drive
many people over the edge and increase the number of
bankruptcies and foreclosures.
Home prices have been rising, although increases may not be
evenly spread across all neighborhoods and all price ranges.
Rents have been rising and apartment vacancies are at almost
record lows, but it is rare to find new construction for rental
units because many of the people looking for apartments can't
afford the higher rents. It is a very mixed economy with some
sectors and geographical areas doing very well and others that
are just getting by. An appraiser must be familiar with the
local market and avoid over-generalizations that fail to
illuminate the forces driving neighborhood property values.
Anything less is not competency.
In 1991 one of my major clients, a New England based
mortgage company, advised me they were closing operations
due to a large number of foreclosures that were making it
difficult to sell mortgages on the secondary market. The
chief lending officer added, however, that nearly none of the
homes I had appraised for the company were in default and he
credited that to the carefully researched and detailed methods
that characterize my work. The lesson from this is that
accurate appraisals are essential to sound lending
practices. A lesson repeated by the Congress when it
passed legislation requiring minimum standards and
licensing of appraisers who it held responsible for many
of the banking problems through a lack of knowledge or
professionalism.
Sellers and refinancing borrowers want to receive the
highest price they can for their property. Buyers have an
emotional commitment to an agreed price because of their
desire to purchase the property. Brokers and loan
originators are paid commissions based on the value of
the sale or loan. The only person in the process
who is paid a flat fee, whether the deal is consummated
or not, is the appraiser. Theoretically, he is free to
state his informed opinion of the property value.
The problem? This is an industry that sells debt.
Appraisers who have higher rates of loan rejection,
whether from low values or from other complicating facts
about the property that are revealed in the report, tend
to be dropped from the list because they interfere with
loan volume. Appraisers who depend on large volumes of
work quickly learn not to report a lack of maintenance,
unsightly conditions, or to mention the presence of a
twenty-five year old underground oil tank on the
premises. Whether by commission or omission, a lie is
still a lie, and the report becomes misleading.
The appraiser has a position of trust, not just to his
client but to truth, and any breach of trust raises
questions about the appraiser's ethics.
Debt is not by itself a thing to be avoided, but has
sometimes been misused. A home is not an investment,
despite what a real estate broker will tell you; it is a
place to live and raise a family, a place that holds
those memories after some have moved on, a place to return
to on the holidays. But as an investment it appreciates
much too slowly (about at the same rate as a passbook
savings account), it's hard to withdraw your money
(either wait for a buyer or refinance and pay interest
for the use of your own equity), and the penalties for
closing the account are steep (nationally about $7,000
for broker's commissions and other expenses on the sale
of a $100,000 home regardless of the size of your
equity). I'm not trying to discourage people from owning their
home or from refinancing it from time to time; that's how
I earn my living. I feel a personal commitment to helping
people into affordable housing, especially first-time
buyers or those with marginal assets because for many
homeownership is a way out from poverty. But we need to
do it with sound lending practices, and that begins with
honest appraisals.
Let's just use a little common sense and bring some
sanity back into the process.
So how do you find an appraiser who's competent,
honest and ethical? Competent means that he understands
the tools of his trade, which is science and math. He
collects data, sorts it for usability and accuracy,
verifies it, extracts the adjustments from the data, then
applies them to the sale prices or the rental amounts.
Differences between the several indicators must be
reconciled. Basic arithmetic is not enough; algebra is
essential, some knowledge of statistics is helpful as is
some trigonometry. The appraiser needs to be able to
calculate financial equations, set up spreadsheets, and
write a report that the lay person can understand. He
knows the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal
Practice thoroughly and adheres to it as a matter
of daily practice. He has a thorough knowledge of
appraisal theory and an extensive and well worn library
to support it. He may be designated by a prestigious
organization, or not. He should have a license and he
should have experience, several years at least, and have
a program of continuing education.
If you have the opportunity to choose your appraiser, you might
ask these questions:
How do they determine Market Value? Listen for evidence that the
appraiser understands the appraisal process and can
communicate it, to you and to the bank, mortgage company,
or to the court if testimony might be needed. I have been
involved in cases where the other side lost because the
appraiser couldn't explain how he arrived at his conclusions.
How long have they been in business? Eight years is long enough
to have seen the market gyrations that have taught some of
us that markets move down as well as up.
How do they value economic obsolescence in the neighborhood? That
includes the run-down property at the end of the street or
a power line behind your home. Most properties do not have
economic obsolescence, but if your home may you should be
particularly interested in his answer. Also, not all
instances of economic obsolescence affect value.
What do they do when there are no neighborhood sales? The usual
answer is that they select sales from other, similar,
neighborhoods. How many months back are they willing to
search for neighborhood sales?
How do they determine similarity among competing neighborhoods?
Vague answers may be a "red flag", good answers may include
criteria such as density of development, price range,
incomes, or even census tracts.
How many appraisals do they do per week? Three or four is a good
number for a thoughtful, thorough, analytical appraiser.
Eight or ten a week suggests a "cookie cutter" operation,
or what I sometimes call a "form filler" instead of real
appraising.
What do they know about my town? Some of the best answers will
be subjective.
Will you tell me the value when the inspection is finished and
before you leave? This can be a real problem if the answer
is "yes". That means that the appraiser arrived with a
preconceived notion of the property value and may not
carefully weigh all of the features that make your home
special.
How long will it take to look at my house? Before they answered,
did they ask what kind of house, how big it is, or any
other question that suggests they expect to be there long
enough to do justice to your home?
Are they licensed, and will they be the one doing the appraisal?
The real question here is, will they show up with a
trainee who will actually be writing the report?
Admittedly, the next generation has to learn on somebody's
house but not on mine. Unless, maybe, you're talking to
the trainee and he/she has answered well on all the questions
you have put to him or her, but most trainees don't get it
right the first time and the licensed supervisor doesn't
have time to tear it apart and send it back because the
bank wants it tomorrow.
Accurate appraisals are to your benefit, not because they have
different values than poorly written ones but because they move
smoothly through the bank's underwriters. Appraisals with weak
supporting data or conflicting statements get stopped until the
appraiser writes an addendum to explain what he meant or reprints
the report to correct a mistake. Reports with numerous errors
may be sent out for a formal field review before the loan can be
closed. Accurate appraisals are reader-friendly, understandable,
and clearly show the relationsip between local market conditions,
the data used, and the final value.
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